Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.447905 0.519239 0.597574 0.689885 0.795596 0.912776 1.052423
2025-06-01 0.322718 0.417466 0.532506 0.682021 0.870736 1.100515 1.400990
2025-06-08 0.248521 0.348166 0.478264 0.659647 0.904954 1.224022 1.669175
2025-06-15 0.219896 0.328487 0.478761 0.700317 1.016772 1.450272 2.086438
2025-06-22 0.180871 0.286347 0.440166 0.678601 1.036137 1.548917 2.335713
2025-06-29 0.151378 0.252647 0.407515 0.658665 1.052049 1.639820 2.578078
2025-07-06 0.128947 0.225973 0.380988 0.643005 1.070072 1.732344 2.828069
2025-07-13 0.116632 0.213638 0.374869 0.657743 1.135540 1.901478 3.209713
2025-07-20 0.109629 0.209133 0.380611 0.691867 1.234906 2.131965 3.708807
2025-07-27 0.101501 0.201348 0.379501 0.713561 1.314661 2.336357 4.181818
2025-08-03 0.092287 0.190185 0.370860 0.720499 1.368667 2.501026 4.600491
2025-08-10 0.082639 0.176783 0.356361 0.714708 1.398520 2.625295 4.957849
2025-08-17 0.073259 0.162855 0.339640 0.703667 1.419098 2.737690 5.309645
2025-08-24 0.065451 0.151095 0.325780 0.696678 1.446832 2.866077 5.703587
2025-08-31 0.057130 0.136975 0.305330 0.673888 1.440876 2.930095 5.981105
2025-09-07 0.055617 0.137688 0.315650 0.715390 1.567409 3.257992 6.792828
2025-09-14 0.048918 0.125536 0.296960 0.693231 1.560634 3.323658 7.094048
2025-09-21 0.043201 0.114833 0.280079 0.672887 1.555197 3.390744 7.402614
2025-09-28 0.038482 0.105850 0.265937 0.656907 1.557230 3.472654 7.747492
2025-10-05 0.036263 0.102856 0.265365 0.671947 1.629223 3.706738 8.430037
2025-10-12 0.035380 0.103225 0.272867 0.706767 1.749232 4.052940 9.379353
2025-10-19 0.033806 0.101506 0.275030 0.728904 1.841899 4.346816 10.237475
2025-10-26 0.031565 0.097618 0.271268 0.735982 1.899590 4.567554 10.950621